“Big choices & big trade offs” on horizon for UK energy policy

The coalition government has offered its first thoughts on the future of UK energy policy, publishing what it refers to as a “groundbreaking analysis” of how the national target of 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 might be achieved. Six “illustrative pathways” have been set out, including a business-as-usual scenario that the government says “highlights the risks of a high carbon future”.

Unveiling the 2050 pathways – alongside a series of other documents detailing current progress against the UK's 2020 target for 34% emission reduction – energy and climate change secretary Chris Huhne emphasised the government's commitment to decarbonising electricity generation as well as cutting other sources of energy-related emissions: “Choosing the high carbon alternative would be high risk. It would lock in exposure to volatile oil prices, declining global reserves and rapidly increasing global energy demand. We’d risk having a dead end economy lagging behind those with the foresight to grab a share of growth in green industries”.

Increasing nuclear-generated electricity features strongly in the 2050 pathways, although the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc) is at pains to emphasise that the pathways do not represent policy decisions and none...is a preferred route”. The government has called for evidence to support and/or disprove its analysis of options for achieving the 2050 target, with deadline for submission of evidence 5 October.

Despite insistence that future energy policy has yet to be decided, Decc observes that the six pathways it has developed collectively point to a series of “common conclusions”. These include the need for: “substantial” per capita cuts in energy demand; substantial electrification of heating, transport and industry; a huge increase in electricity supply, achieved simultaneously with decarbonisation; and sustainable bioenergy for sectors “where electrification is unlikely to be practical”.

Decc also notes that continuing use of fossil fuels will be necessary, to some degree, and that increasing volumes of “variable renewable generation” will create challenges for management of the electricity grid. The department also sounds a warning about other areas of the economy that will need to cut emissions in order to ensure the 2050 target is met: “emissions from agriculture, waste, industrial processes and international transport make up a small proportion of emissions today, but by 2050, if no action were taken, emissions from these sectors alone would exceed the maximum level of emissions for the whole economy”.

The UK's first annual energy statement was unveiled alongside the 2050 analysis. This summarises the programme and timetable for current actions being taken by the government to deliver carbon emission reduction.

• Decc news release re: energy policy